This fallout coincided with rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea, including a November 2022 incident in which the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) forcibly seized space debris — believed to be from a Chinese rocket launch — from the Philippine Navy. A month after Marcos Jr’s January 2023 state visit to China, a CCG vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine vessel on a Rotation and Resupply (RORE) mission to Second Thomas Shoal where the Philippines has a grounded vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre. Disagreeing with Marcos Jr’s allegedly escalatory approach towards China, former president Rodrigo Duterte’s camp claimed that he had previously reached a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with China in the South China Sea, which the Chinese Embassy affirmed and referred to as a ‘new model’ agreement. But since China prohibits ‘large scale’ repairs, the Philippines cannot afford to let the ship deteriorate as it would result in the loss of the Philippines’ claim to the shoal. The ongoing ICC investigation into Rodrigo Duterte, the upcoming impeachment trial of his daughter Vice President Sara Duterte, the May midterm elections and the governance performance of the current administration could either fuel the political resurgence of the Dutertes or pave the way for new domestic political realignments. Read Full Story
